Tropical Storm #Nicholas has just formed.
With warm water temperatures and lowering wind shear, there’s a window over the next 24-36 hours for the system to organize quicker than model guidance suggests. Higher end tropical storm appears within reach before approach to Texas. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later today.
Regardless of some wind and surge impacts possible, heavy rainfall and flash flooding looks to be the primary concern along the west/central gulf coast early-middle of next week for Texas and Louisiana. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban and isolated river flooding.
The peak of the hurricane season is here and the Atlantic basin is active with three other systems being monitored.One area is a tropical wave located just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week.Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week. Another area of low pressure that is expected to form near the southeastern Bahamas in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.
Graphics provided by WeatherBELL, Tropicaltidbits and NOAA